An Early Look at the 2024 Presidential Election
Biden loses support among his young 2020 voters
Real Clear Politics average polling currently indicates that President Biden holds a slight +1 lead over former President Donald Trump. While these numbers might be concerning for Democrats, it's important to remember that their focus should not be solely on the popular vote. Historically, Democratic presidential nominees have performed well in the popular vote, except John Kerry in 2004. No Democrat has assumed the presidency without also winning the popular vote, making it highly likely they will secure it again in 2024.
However, the real battleground is the electoral college. As Trump in 2016, and Bush in 2000 proved, winning the popular vote doesn't guarantee victory in the presidential race. Campaign strategies need to be tailored to secure the necessary electoral college votes, as demonstrated by Donald Trump's successful 2016 campaign, where he concentrated on pivotal swing states.
Biden’s Approval Rating
The media landscape has been inundated with discussions surrounding President Biden's current and notably low approval ratings. This phenomenon should come as no surprise, as a substantial portion of Republicans consistently registers their disapproval. Moreover, within the Democratic party, there has been a spirited effort to foster a more vibrant and influential youth movement, which invites criticism of Biden’s age from within his party.
Democrats and Republicans alike should exercise caution when prematurely anointing Biden's eventual Republican opponent as his successor. The 2024 election is still over a year away, leaving ample time for both Biden and the GOP to persuade voters in favor of their respective candidates.
Moreover, while Biden's current approval rating is relatively low, it is worth noting that this level of unpopularity is not uncommon for a sitting president at this stage in their first term. The graph below illustrates a recurring pattern in approval ratings for five presidents.
Biden assumed office with an average approval rating of around 57%, a figure consistent with his predecessors such as Obama, Bush, and Clinton. Among these five presidents, only Trump commenced his presidency with an approval rating below 50%. These leaders witnessed a rapid decline in their approval ratings shortly after taking office. A notable exception was Bush, whose approval rating skyrocketed to 90% in the aftermath of the September 11th attacks.
Biden's approval ratings are following a similar trajectory to his contemporaries. As of the latest polls conducted between August 1 and August 23, his approval rating stands at 42%. This places him slightly ahead of where Obama (40%) and Trump (41%) were at a comparable point in their presidencies while lagging just behind Clinton (46%). These figures are measured approximately 440 days from their respective elections.
In recent history, three of the last four presidents secured re-election despite weathering turbulent periods of fluctuating approval ratings. This historical perspective offers a valuable reminder: Democrats need not succumb to panic, and Republicans should approach their campaign strategy with due diligence. The path to re-election frequently involves fluctuating approval ratings, and the outcome hinges on an intricate interplay of numerous factors.
Among these factors, the role of the Electoral College looms large. This system not only tempers the impact of popular sentiment but also elevates the significance of smaller states, effectively crafting the landscape of swing states through the reallocation of electoral influence. Supporters of the Electoral College argue that it prevents a few populous states, like California and New York, from dominating the electoral process and imposing their will on the entire nation. However, the Electoral College itself creates a similar dynamic. Rather than California and New York, it is states like Wisconsin and Pennsylvania that often hold the key to deciding the outcome of presidential elections. These battleground states become the focal point of intense campaign efforts, while states that are reliably red or blue receive far less attention. The Electoral College, in essence, shifts the power from a few large states to a few swing states, making their votes disproportionately influential in the final result.
This underscores why solely relying on approval ratings and national polls can be shortsighted. In the American electoral system, the objective is not to secure the most popular votes but rather to secure a minimum of 270 electoral votes. Hence, a comprehensive evaluation of swing states is imperative to construct an accurate portrayal of the President's political standing.
Swing States
I've established criteria for identifying swing states based on the margin of victory in the previous presidential election. Specifically, states won by a margin of less than three percentage points are classified as battlegrounds. The current list of swing states includes Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia, collectively contributing 93 electoral votes. The remaining states are categorized as either safe or leaning toward a particular party. If President Biden secures the Democratic-leaning or safe states, he would accumulate a total of 226 electoral votes, while former President Trump (the assumption here being Trump will secure the GOP nomination) would have 219. This means President Biden would need an additional 44 electors to reach the crucial 270-electoral vote threshold for victory.
As depicted on this map, Biden and Trump face a competitive contest in seven crucial states. However, the odds of victory for both candidates vary across these states. North Carolina, characterized by its historical Republican support, is likely to continue this trend, making it less favorable for Biden. On the other hand, Nevada has a strong history of Democratic voting and is expected to lean towards Biden for at least one more cycle. This leaves the candidates with five remaining states to focus their efforts on: Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Georgia.
Among these five states, Georgia and Pennsylvania stand out prominently. Trump has an opportunity to demonstrate that the Democrats' victory in Georgia was an outlier. Georgia has a long history of voting for conservative candidates and is positioned to swing back to the Republican camp. If Trump succeeds in winning Georgia, and all other leaning or safe states remain as projected, he will need 19 electoral votes to reach the crucial 270 threshold. The one swing state that can deliver those 19 to him is Pennsylvania.
A strategic approach for the Republicans could involve focusing their efforts primarily on Georgia and Pennsylvania instead of spreading their resources across all the swing states. Concentrating on two key states may prove more efficient and effective for their campaign. Alternatively, Trump could consider targeting Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, and Wisconsin. However, it's worth noting that Arizona has previously voted against pro-Trump/pro-"big lie" candidates in the 2022 midterms, which might present a challenge for Trump in that state. If he were to lose any of these states (assuming he also loses PA), he would lose his second election.
For Biden, his strategy will hinge on maintaining and growing his 2020 support. His success in the 2020 election was underpinned by his ability to widen the Democratic vote margin compared to 2016. This surge in support was evident in both traditionally blue and red counties. For instance, in Milwaukee County, Wisconsin—a deep blue county in a swing state—Biden bolstered his margin by 3.5 percentage points. Biden also made gains in Waukesha County, a Republican stronghold, and improved his margin by 5.64 points.
Although Biden lost Waukesha by a substantial 55,000 votes, it's a county that Republicans almost certainly need to win with 60% of the vote if they aspire to win the state. In the 2020 election, including third-party and write-in candidates, Trump secured 59.6% of the vote in Waukesha, marking the first time since Reagan that a Republican candidate fell short of the 60% threshold in this county.
Where Biden Underperforms
In a recent New York Times/Siena College Poll, the data paints a concerning picture for President Joe Biden. It indicates that merely 36% of respondents within the 18-29 age bracket and 35% within the 30-44 age group approve of his job performance. Additionally, the approval rating among individuals holding a bachelor's degree or higher stands at just 47%. These figures should give President Biden pause, particularly considering that a substantial portion of his election victory was attributed to the support of younger and educated voters.
Additionally, an intriguing aspect of the survey reveals that around 10% of individuals aged 18 to 29 and 16% of those in the 30 to 44 age bracket express their intent to either vote for a third-party candidate or abstain from voting entirely if presented with a hypothetical Biden versus Trump election today. In essence, this suggests that 14% of voters aged 44 and under harbor a sense of disillusionment toward the two major candidates, leading them to consider withholding their support from either option.
This discontent finds expression in the preferences of Democratic primary voters. While a majority (64%) of primary voters express their intent to vote for Joe Biden, the landscape differs significantly by age group. Among 18-29 year-olds, only 34% favor Biden, while 27% align themselves with Marianne Williamson. This stands in stark contrast to the overwhelming 90% support Biden commands among voters aged 65 and older.
Two potential factors can explain this evident antipathy among young voters. First, just under 9% of 18-29 year-olds report excellent or good economic conditions. Of those between 30-44, 17% only report good economic conditions. Despite the robust and swift recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic, a sense of economic optimism remains elusive for a significant portion of the electorate, particularly among the younger demographic.
Furthermore, when examining those who favor a candidate other than Biden for the Democratic nomination, a notable trend emerges. Among this group, the leading factor influencing their choice is Biden's age, with 39% citing it as the primary reason for their preference. This sentiment is particularly pronounced among those under 29, where 40% point to his age as the key concern. For those aged 30-44, while age remains a factor (cited by 22%), a plurality (37%) express dissatisfaction with his job performance as their primary reservation.
To secure victory in his bid for re-election, President Biden faces a critical challenge in reconnecting with young voters. His success hinges on not only mobilizing them to the polls but also persuading them to cast their ballots in his favor once there. Achieving this goal requires a two-fold strategy.
Firstly, President Biden can leverage a strong narrative of economic recovery while also acknowledging the ongoing financial struggles faced by many Americans, especially the younger demographic. By addressing these economic concerns head-on, he can resonate with young voters who are seeking tangible solutions to improve their financial well-being.
Secondly, President Biden must confront the concerns surrounding his age. While he has initiated discussions on this topic, the effectiveness of his strategy remains to be seen. It is crucial for him to offer reassurance to the electorate regarding his health and capacity to lead effectively.
As we look ahead to the 2024 election, keep in mind that there are over 400 days remaining until the voting begins. History has shown that incumbents with approval ratings lower than President Biden's have managed to secure re-election, and he has ample time to turn the tide in his favor.
Additionally, the political landscape remains dynamic, with many uncertainties, including the legal challenges facing former President Trump, such as the 91 counts levied against him. These factors can significantly influence the course of the upcoming election.